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workforce planning when AI changes the work

how to model demand and supply when task composition shifts, with a build, buy, borrow, bot matrix

41 pages · 40 min read

Headcount planning assumes roles hold still. They are not holding still. The ILO and NASK estimate that around one in four workers globally sit in occupations with some exposure to generative AI, with clerical work the most exposed category. Stanford's Digital Economy Lab puts employment of 22 to 25 year olds in the most AI-exposed occupations about 19% below where it would sit had it tracked their less-exposed peers, an effect running through reduced hiring rather than higher separations.

Planning at the level of job titles hides all of this. This guide models demand at the task level, then rebuilds supply from attrition, internal movement and skill decay. It gives a build, buy, borrow, bot matrix for deciding how each capability gap gets closed, with cost, lead time and reversibility as the inputs. It then runs the whole model through four scenarios rather than one forecast.

Written for workforce planning leads, people analytics teams and the finance partners who sign off headcount. Includes a task exposure scoring method, four scenario templates, the decision matrix, and the leading indicators that move before headcount does.

what’s inside

  1. why headcount planning breaks when tasks move
  2. modelling demand at the task level
  3. modelling supply: attrition, internal movement and skill decay
  4. the build, buy, borrow, bot decision matrix
  5. four scenarios and the template for running them
  6. the entry-level problem and the pipeline it breaks
  7. governance: who signs the plan and when it is rerun

what you’ll be able to do

  • decompose a critical role into tasks and score each for exposure using a published occupational index
  • complete a build, buy, borrow, bot matrix for one job family, with cost and lead-time inputs
  • run four workforce scenarios from a single demand model and record the trigger that selects each
  • set leading indicators that signal a scenario turning before the headcount number changes

referenced sources